基于公众健康的大气环境风险源定量分级方法

目前国内针对化工企业大气环境风险源的突发泄漏事故健康风险分级方法较少.通过设定可信最严重事故场景,计算环境风险源在现有风险管理水平和当地可预期气象条件下的事故影响概率和健康危害,获得健康风险(包括急性暴露风险、死亡风险和综合健康风险)并划分风险源等级,由此建立了一种考虑公众健康的大气环境风险源定量分级方法.将方法应用于太原市某化工企业液氯储罐区健康风险评估,获得了各风向下的事故影响概率、后果和风险玫瑰图,显示风险源的健康风险与周边公众的分布特征密切相关.在可信最严重事故场景下,综合风险最大值为4.88×10-6,特征风向为S风向,风险源等级为极高风险(Ⅰ级). 

Hierarchy Method for Source Quantification of Atmospheric Environmental Risk based on Public Health

A quantitative hierarchy method was established based on risk source grades and risk values of acute exposure,death and comprehensive health hazards.Risk values were obtained for the worst credible case by calculating the accident influence probability and health hazards at the present management level and under the local predictable meteorological conditions.This method was proven to be effective when used in assessment of the health risk from a chemical plant in Taiyuan City,Shanxi Province,where many liquid chlorine tanks were stored.The analysis of the accident influence probability,consequences and risk rose diagrams in all wind directions showed that the health risk from the atmospheric sources was closely related to the population distribution in the surrounding area.In the worst credible case,the characteristic wind direction was south,the comprehensive risk value reach a maximum of 4.88×10-6 and the risk source belonged to the extremely high grade(Grade Ⅰ).