基于主成分分析法和AHP-GEM模型的区域新增建设用地指标合理配置——-以江苏省为例

为从理论上科学合理地配置各子区域的新增建设用地指标, 以江苏省为例, 初步选取了影响 区域新增建设用地合理配置的13 项指标, 为避免指标间的多重共线性, 应用主成分分析法将这些 指标综合归并为人口资源、经济社会、城镇发展3 个综合因子。在此基础上, 采用AHP-GEM模型对 江苏省的新增建设用地指标进行了理论上的配置, 结果表明: 江苏省新增建设用地指标分配值可以 分为4 个层次: ①苏州、无锡和南京, 理论上所应分配的新增建设用地面积占全省总量的比例均大 于10%, 其中, 苏州最多, 为18.80%, 无锡、南京次之, 分别为16.78%和11.20%; ②南通和常州, 分 别为7.93%和7.81%, 其比例在7.5%至8%之间; ③扬州、镇江、盐城、泰州和徐州, 分别为6.03%、 5.91%、5.51%、5.33%和5.00%, 其比例占全省的5.5%左右; ④淮安、连云港和宿迁, 分别为3.65%、 3.03%和3.01%, 其比例在3%左右。通过比较, 理论上计算的结果与实际分配情况大致吻合。

Allocation of Newly-added Quota of Regional Construction Land Based on Principal Components Analysis and AHP-GEM Model --A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

The newly added quota of construction land is very vital to the regional economicdevelopment.With the rapid growth of economy,the contradiction between construction landsupply and demands has become further sharpened due to the scarcity of land resources.Therefore rational allocation of construction land is becoming more and more urgent.In order to allocate the newly added regional construction land rationally and scientifically,taking Jiangsu as an example,this paper first selects 13 factors as original indexes.Then principalcomponents analysis method is applied to integrate these factors into three indexes,which arepopulation resource,economic society,and urban development.Based on these indexes,the studyapplies AHP-GEM model to allocate the newly increased quota of construction land in JiangsuProvince.Result shows that the proportions of the allocation could be divided into four levels.Inall of the three first level cities,Suzhou has the maximum allocated proportion(18.80%),followedby Wuxi and Nanjing with the percentages of 16.78 and 11.20 respectively.The second levelconsists of Nantong(7.93%) and Changzhou(7.81%).At the third level,Yangzhou,Zhenjiang,Yancheng,Taizhou and Xuzhou are allocated 6.03%,5.91%,5.51%,5.33%,and 5.00% respectively.Finally,Huaian,Lianyungang and Suqian belong to the forth level with the percentages of 3.65,3.03 and 3.01 respectively.At the end of this paper,conclusions and suggestions for the newly added construction landallocation are presented.(1) The result basically reflects the increased construction land demandin a region.(2)AHP-GEM model combines the advantages of both AHP method and GEM method.Hence,it is more objective to allocate the newly added construction land quota using AHP-GEMmodel.(3)Choosing an appropriate index is important to apply this model.This index should betterbe a forecast value.(4)With minor modifications,this model can be adopted to allocate the newlyadded construction land at all levels,such as state,provincial,and county levels etc.