甘肃省第三产业对经济增长贡献的实证研究

第三产业的加快发展是生产力提高和社会进步的必然结果。大力发展第三产业有利于提高工农业生产的社会化和专业化水平，有利于优化生产结构，促进市场充分发育，缓解就业压力，从而促进整个经济持续、快速和健康发展。利用1991-2009年数据，以向量自回归模型为基础，采用单位根检验、协整分析和格兰杰因果检验等方法对甘肃省第三产业与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明，1991-2009年甘肃省第三产业总值对GDP的长期弹性为0．35035，第三产业对经济增长具有积极的促进作用。

Empirical Research of the Third Industry Contribution on Economic Growth of Gansu Province

Fast development of the third indus,, was the inevitable result in productivity improvement and social progress. Developing the third industry made for promoting industrial and agricultural production socialization and enhancing professional level, helping to optimize produetion structure, promoting the market fully developed, relieving employment pressure, thus promoted the whole economy sustained and rapid healthy development. Using the 1991 -2009 data, based on vector auto- regression models, using unit root test, cointegration analysis and granger causality test methods, analyzed the relat：onship between the third industry and economic growth in Gansu Province. Conclusion showed that from 1991 to 2009, from the long - term, the flexibility was 0.35035 of third industry gross to C;DP. The third industry had a positive function on economic growth.