基于耕地资源多情景下的人口承载潜力研究——以焦作市为例

在传统食物型人口承载力的基础上，把河南焦作地区设为研究区域，依据耕地资源、粮食生产和人口增长的历史状况，运用相关数学模型进行预测分析，并以此为依据对研究区域未来30年不同情景下的耕地资源人口承载潜力的可能变化过程进行了多情景模拟分析。研究表明：①随着社会经济的发展，无论以何种发展情景及人口消费水平，焦作地区耕地资源人口承载力均为富载状态，是重要的粮食主产区；②本区域在理想情景与适中情景发展模式下，耕地资源人口承载潜力均能超过现在的承载能力；③从模拟结果看，理想情景为最优方案，但考虑到研究区域的现状发展水平，适中情景发展模式可能更具操作性和合理性。

Population Supporting Capacity Research Based on Land Multiple Scenarios - A Case Study of Jiaozuo City

Taking the area of Jiaozuo City as the study area, according to the historical conditions of its land resources,food production and the population growth, this paper simulated the changing process of land resources and population supporting capacity in different situations of study area based on the traditional type of food population supporting capacity and using relevant mathematical models to predict and analyze in the next 30 years. According to the research, with the development of social economy, no matter what kind of development scenarios and what level of consumption conditions of the population,the population supporting capacity of Jiaozuo land was at the rich status,and the Jiaozuo City was remain as an important grain producing area in China. The population supporting capacity were more than the eurrent when in the ideal and moderate developing situation in the region. This paper drew that the ideal situation was the optimal solution through the simulation result, however, taking into account the development level of the study area,the moderate situation development model could be more feasible and reasonable.