Zonal management of arsenic contaminated ground water in Northwestern Bangladesh

This paper used ordinary kriging to spatially map arsenic contamination in shallow aquifers of Northwestern Bangladesh (total area  35,000 km²). The Northwestern region was selected because it represents a relatively safer source of large-scale and affordable water supply for the rest of Bangladesh currently faced with extensive arsenic contamination in drinking water (such as the Southern regions). Hence, the work appropriately explored sustainability issues by building upon a previously published study (Hossain et al., 2007; Water Resources Management, vol. 21: 1245–1261) where a more general nation-wide assessment afforded by kriging was identified. The arsenic database for reference comprised the nation-wide survey (of 3534 drinking wells) completed in 1999 by the British Geological Survey (BGS) in collaboration with the Department of Public Health Engineering (DPHE) of Bangladesh. Randomly sampled networks of zones from this reference database were used to develop an empirical variogram and develop maps of zonal arsenic concentration for the Northwestern region. The remaining non-sampled zones from the reference database were used to assess the accuracy of the kriged maps. Two additional criteria were explored: (1) the ability of geostatistical interpolators such as kriging to extrapolate information on spatial structure of arsenic contamination beyond small-scale exploratory domains; (2) the impact of a priori knowledge of anisotropic variability on the effectiveness of geostatistically based management. On the average, the kriging method was found to have a 90% probability of successful prediction of safe zones according to the WHO safe limit of 10 ppb while for the Bangladesh safe limit of 50 ppb, the safe zone prediction probability was 97%. Compared to the previous study by Hossain et al. (2007) over the rest of the contaminated country side, the probability of successful detection of safe zones in the Northwest is observed to be about 25% higher. An a priori knowledge of anisotropy was found to have inconclusive impact on the effectiveness of kriging. It was, however, hypothesized that a preferential sampling strategy that honored anisotropy could be necessary to reach a more definitive conclusion in regards to this issue.