Assessing the Cost of an Invasive Forest Pathogen: A Case Study with Oak Wilt |
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Authors: | Robert G Haight Frances R Homans Tetsuya Horie Shefali V Mehta David J Smith Robert C Venette |
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Institution: | (1) U.S. Forest Service Northern Research Station, 1992 Folwell Avenue, St. Paul, Minnesota 55108, USA;(2) Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, 1994 Buford Avenue, St. Paul, Minnesota 55108, USA;(3) Center for the Environment and Trade Research, Sophia University, 7-1 Kioi-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-8554, Japan;(4) U.S. Forest Service Northern Research Station, 1561 Lindig Ave, St. Paul, Minnesota 55108, USA |
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Abstract: | Economic assessment of damage caused by invasive alien species provides useful information to consider when determining whether
management programs should be established, modified, or discontinued. We estimate the baseline economic damage from an invasive
alien pathogen, Ceratocystis fagacearum, a fungus that causes oak wilt, which is a significant disease of oaks (Quercus spp.) in the central United States. We focus on Anoka County, Minnesota, a 1,156 km2 mostly urban county in the Minneapolis-Saint Paul metropolitan region. We develop a landscape-level model of oak wilt spread
that accounts for underground and overland pathogen transmission. We predict the economic damage of tree mortality from oak
wilt spread in the absence of management during the period 2007–2016. Our metric of economic damage is removal cost, which
is one component of the total economic loss from tree mortality. We estimate that Anoka County has 5.92 million oak trees
and 885 active oak wilt pockets covering 5.47 km2 in 2007. The likelihood that landowners remove infected oaks varies by land use and ranges from 86% on developed land to
57% on forest land. Over the next decade, depending on the rates of oak wilt pocket establishment and expansion, 76–266 thousand
trees will be infected with discounted removal cost of $18–60 million. Although our predictions of removal costs are substantial,
they are lower bounds on the total economic loss from tree mortality because we do not estimate economic losses from reduced
services and increased hazards. Our predictions suggest that there are significant economic benefits, in terms of damage reduction,
from preventing new pocket establishment or slowing the radial growth of existing pockets. |
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