安徽省环境库兹涅茨曲线的区域差异研究

以安徽省8个典型城市1992-2006年的环境统计数据和工业污染物排放量为基础,利用线性相关、二次曲线和三次曲线拟合8个典型城市的工业CODCr和SO2排放量与人均GDP的相关性.结果表明,市级经济发展程度越高,环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)特征越明显;安徽省经济最发达的马鞍山和铜陵市已初步呈现EKC特征.马鞍山市的工业CODCr和SO2排放均呈倒U型曲线分布,淮南市的工业SO2排放呈U型 倒U型分布.安徽省的工业污染物排放量与GDP增长存在明显的地区差异,这些差异与经济发展水平有关,经济越发达,分布越有规律.但经济不发达的市也可能出现阶段性的EKC曲线分布特征.

Study on Regional Difference of Environmental Kuznets Curve in Anhui Province

The diversities of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in eight typical cities of Anhui Province was studies by the mathematic models for relationship between economic growth and pollutant emission on statistic data basis of GDP per capita and industrial pollutants during 1992-2006. The results show that the more developed the economy is, the more characteristic of EKC emerges. The regression on the emission of industrial COD_Cr, SO₂ with GDP per capita in more developed Maanshan City and Tongling City presents the reverse-U function, namely, thecharacteristic of EKC. Industrial SO₂ of Huainan City presents U-function + reverse U-function. There exists obvious regional difference in the emissions of industrial pollutants and GDP growth, which is related to the economic development levels. The more developed the economy is, the more consistent rules there are. However, undeveloped cities may also have phasic characteristic of EKC.