Tracer transport model at Japan meteorological agency and its application to the ETEX data

This paper describes the JMA tracer transport model and its sensitivity to model physics and initial conditions by using the ETEX data. Compared with observations, the model overestimates ground-level concentration in the early stage within about one day from the emission, possibly due to underestimation of vertical diffusion. In the early stage, the enhanced vertical diffusion effectively transports the tracer upward and decreases the ground-level concentration, while in the later stage, it enhances downward transports from the upper layer and increases the ground-level concentration. A conceptual model is given for understanding the vertical transport due to vertical diffusion. The horizontal diffusion introduced to the model has preferable impacts on forecasts especially in the early stage. Finally, we discuss the predictability of this model based on sensitivity to initial conditions of emission time and height.