An integrated EDIB model for probabilistic risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Environment and Safety Engineering, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, 350116, China;2. Fujian Provincial Institute of Architectural Design and Research CO. LTD., Fuzhou, 350001, China;3. Safety and Security Science Group, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft, 2628 BX, Delft, the Netherlands;4. Faculty of Applied Economics, Antwerp Research Group on Safety and Security (ARGoSS), Universiteit Antwerpen, 2000, Antwerp, Belgium;5. CEDON, KULeuven, 1000, Brussels, Belgium;1. School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology - Beijing, D11 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100083, China;2. China Oil & Gas Pipeline Network Corporation, 5 Dongtucheng Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100020, China;1. College of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao, 266580, China;2. Saifeite Engineering Group Co. Ltd., Qingdao, 266061, China;3. Department of Safety, Health, And Environmental Engineering, National Yunlin University of Science and Technology, Yunlin, 64002, Taiwan, ROC;1. Institute of Safety Science & Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China;2. Guangdong Provincial Science and Technology Collaborative Innovation Center for Work Safety, Guangzhou 510640, China;3. Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Safety and Security Science Group (S3G), TU Delft, 2628 BX, Delft, the Netherlands;4. CEDON, KULeuven, Campus Brussels, Brussels 1000, Belgium;5. Faculty of Applied Economics, Antwerp Research Group on Safety and Security (ARGoSS), University Antwerp, Antwerp 2000, Belgium;1. Université de Toulouse, INSA, UPS, Mines d’Albi, ISAE, ICA (Institut Clément Ader), 135 Avenue de Rangueil, Cedex, 31077, Toulouse, France;2. Defence Technology Institute, 47/433 Moo 3, Ban Mai, Pak Kret, Nonthaburi, 11120, Thailand;3. Faculty of Engineering, Burapha University, 169 Long-Hard Bangsaen Road, Chonburi, 20131, Thailand;1. Institute of Safety Science & Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510640, China;2. Guangdong Provincial Science and Technology Collaborative Innovation Center for Work Safety, Guangzhou 510640, China;1. School of Electromechanical Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China;2. Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Safety and Security Science Group (S3G), TU Delft, 2628 BX, Delft, the Netherlands;3. Faculty of Applied Economics, Antwerp Research Group on Safety and Security (ARGoSS), Universiteit Antwerpen, 2000, Antwerp, Belgium;4. CEDON, KULeuven, 1000, Brussels, Belgium |
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| Abstract: | Natural gas pipeline construction is developing rapidly worldwide to meet the needs of international and domestic energy transportation. Meanwhile, leakage accidents occur to natural gas pipelines frequently due to mechanical failure, personal operation errors, etc., and induce huge economic property loss, environmental damages, and even casualties. However, few models have been developed to describe the evolution process of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents (NGPLA) and assess their corresponding consequences and influencing factors quantitatively. Therefore, this study aims to propose a comprehensive risk analysis model, named EDIB (ET-DEMATEL-ISM-BN) model, which can be employed to analyze the accident evolution process of NGPLA and conduct probabilistic risk assessments of NGPLA with the consideration of multiple influencing factors. In the proposed integrated model, event tree analysis (ET) is employed to analyze the evolution process of NGPLA before the influencing factors of accident evolution can be identified with the help of accident reports. Then, the combination of DEMATEL (Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) and ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) is used to determine the relationship among accident evolution events of NGPLA and obtain a hierarchical network, which can be employed to support the construction of a Bayesian network (BN) model. The prior conditional probabilities of the BN model were determined based on the data analysis of 773 accident reports or expert judgment with the help of the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Finally, the developed BN model was used to conduct accident evolution scenario analysis and influencing factor sensitivity analysis with respect to secondary accidents (fire, vapor cloud explosion, and asphyxia or poisoning). The results show that ignition is the most critical influencing factor leading to secondary accidents. The occurrence time and occurrence location of NGPLA mainly affect the efficiency of emergency response and further influence the accident consequence. Meanwhile, the weight ranking of economic loss, environmental influence, and casualties on social influence is determined with respect to NGPLAs. |
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| Keywords: | Probabilistic risk analysis Natural gas pipeline Gas leakage Accident evolution analysis Bayesian network |
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