Scenario derivation and consequence evaluation of dust explosion accident based on dynamic Bayesian network |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Safety Engineering, Beijing Institute of Petrochemical Technology, Beijing, 102617, China;2. Research Institute of Macro-Safety Science, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, 10083, China;3. NHC Key Laboratory for Engineering Control of Dust Hazard, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, 100083, China;1. CAIMI Centro de Aplicaciones Informáticas y Modelado en Ingeniería, Universidad Tecnológica Nacional, Facultad Regional Rosario, Zeballos, 1346, S2000BQA, Rosario, Argentina;2. CONICET Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Blvd. 27 de Febrero 210 Bis, S2000EZP, Rosario, Argentina;1. College of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao, 266580, China;2. College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao, 266580, China;1. ETSI Minas y Energía, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain;2. Laboratorio Oficial JM de Madariaga, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Getafe, Spain;1. Université de Toulouse, INSA, UPS, Mines d’Albi, ISAE, ICA (Institut Clément Ader), 135 Avenue de Rangueil, Cedex, 31077, Toulouse, France;2. Defence Technology Institute, 47/433 Moo 3, Ban Mai, Pak Kret, Nonthaburi, 11120, Thailand;3. Faculty of Engineering, Burapha University, 169 Long-Hard Bangsaen Road, Chonburi, 20131, Thailand;1. College of Aerospace and Civil Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, China;2. College of Shipbuilding Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, China |
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| Abstract: | In order to clarify the correlation between the evolution path of dust explosion accidents and emergency decision-making, and to accurately predict the disaster damage levels of various disaster bearing bodies. This paper extracts 56 key scenario elements from four aspects, namely state, answer, goal and environment, based on the analysis of typical dust explosion accident cases. At the same time, a general scenario evolution path of dust explosion accident is constructed. Using fuzzy number set theory and dynamic Bayes joint probability model, the accurate solution of scenario state probability was realized. With the help of accident cases and dynamic Bayes approach, the dust explosion consequence prediction index system and evaluation criteria were constructed, covering factors such as dust explosion intensity, casualties, direct economic losses, equipment damage, building damage, environmental damage and other factors. A polyethylene wax dust explosion accident in a city of China was used to verify the dust explosion accident scenario evolution model and consequences prediction model. The predicted results were in good agreement with the actual damage of various carriers of the accident, which indicated that the model could be used for dust explosion accident prediction and disaster loss prediction. The research results provided reference and technical support for the prediction of dust explosion accident evolution direction, emergency aid measures decision and deployment, disaster damage prediction and evaluation. |
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| Keywords: | Dust explosion Scenario derivation Dynamic bayesian network Prediction of consequences |
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