基于雷达估算降雨的湖北漳河流域径流模拟研究

本文以湖北省漳河流域为研究对象,从2008-2017年中选取了16次洪水过程(10次过程用于率定参数,6次过程用于检验),分别采用了4种方法进行雷达降雨估算,并将估算结果输入到TOPMODEL和新安江模型进行了径流模拟计算。结果表明:4种雷达降雨估算方法中动态Z-I的平均相对误差最小为8.16%,其次是分组Z-I为20.1%,最优Z-I和经典Z-I分别为29.7%和29.02%;从径流模拟结果来看,动态Z-I效果最佳,分组Z-I次之,最优Z-I和经典Z-I模拟效果相对较差,且TOPMODEL模型的洪峰相对误差和峰现时差比新安江模型的模拟结果要小,新安江模型模拟结果的确定性系数与TOPMODEL模型接近。

Research on runoff simulation of Zhanghe Basin based on radar estimation precipitation

This paper takes Zhanghe River Basin in Hubei Province as the research object.Twelve flood processes were selected from 2008 to 2017(ten processes were used to calibrate parameters and six processes were used to test).Four methods were used to estimate radar rainfall,and the estimated result was input into TOPMODEL and Xin′an Jiang model for runoff simulation.The result shows that the dynamic Z-I had the smallest average relative error 8.16%,followed by grouped Z-I was 20.1%,optimal Z-I was 29.7%and classical Z-I was 29.02%.The dynamic Z-I had the best result of runoff simulation,followed by grouped Z-I,that optimal Z-I and classical Z-I were relatively the worse.Moreover,the relative errors of peak and the time difference of TOPMODEL model were smaller than Xin′an Jiang model,but the certainty coefficient of Xin′an Jiang model was close to the TOPMODEL model.