Prognostic simulation of alpine ecosystems in view of global climate change

Experience in predicting the state of alpine ecosystems on the basis of empirical-statistical simulation is described using the example of the Central Caucasus. Two types of analytical and cartographic prognostic models, chorometric and chronometric, are presented. They are used to obtain probabilistic estimates of alpine meadows and forests in the vicinity of Mount Elbrus in view of the forthcoming global climate warming for the period until the year 2100 (by means of GISS Model E for climate prediction).