利用CGE模型评价水价改革的影响力——以北京市为例

为保证水价改革公平，将水价影响控制在可承受范围内，需要有工具能评估水价改革的影响。以北京市为例，建立了CGE模型用以评价各部门水价水平高低。通过改进CGE模型的收入方程，以评价水价改革对价格水平、生产、用水量和水费收入的影响。评价结果表明：从1996到2005年，各部门水价水平大幅增加，但极不平均；水价改革对价格水平的影响极低；对某些部门的生产有程度很低的不利影响。但可提高净产值。促进个别部门发展。

Evaluation on Effects of Water Price Reform Using CGE Model——A Case Study in Beijing

The evaluation tool is needed to make sure that water price reform is fair and relevent effects are affordable. This paper makes a case study in Beijing, eatablishes a CGE model to evaluate water price comparative levels of various departments. Then the income equations of CGE model are rewrited to evaluate the effects on price index, production, water consumption and expenditure of water price reform.The results show that the water price comparative levels of productive sectors have increased a lot from year 1996 to year 2005, but the overal water price comparative levels are inequality. The water price reform has very small effect on price index. The productions of certain departments have adverse but slight decline. Besides, the net production value increases and some sector is promoted to develop.