“十五”期间苏北大运河水环境质量及趋势分析

南水北调东线的关键是输水沿线水环境质量。京杭大运河江苏苏北段作为南水北调东线重要榆水干线，其水环境质量直接影响东线北调输水水质与工程效益。根据京杭大运河江苏苏北段“十五”期间历年水环境监测资料，将苏北段大运河分为不牢河、中运河、里运河三个河段，综合分析评价了苏北大运河水环境质量，大运河徐州段及淮安市区段污染严重。在水质分析评价的基础上，采用Spearman秩相关系数法及二元多项式回归趋势线等方法相结合的方法，进一步分析了苏北大运河“十五”期间水环境质量变化趋势。

Alysis on Water Environment Quality and Tendency of the Northern Part in Jiangsu Province of Jinghang Canal in Tenth-Five Period

The key to the eastern line of South - to - North water diversion project is the water environment quality. As the important part canal, the water quality of the northern part in Jiangsu Province of Jinghang Canal influences directly the water quality and the benefit of South - to - North water diversion project. According to the results of analysis and estimate to water environment quality of the northern part in Jiangsu Province of Jinghang Canal with monitoring data in the Tenth - Five period, the water pollution of Xuzhou and Huaian parts is serious in 3 parts of the northern part in Jiangsu Province of Jianghang Canal which is Bulao River, Zhongyunhe River and Liyunhe River. Furthermore, the paper analyzes the tendency of water environment of the northern part in Jiangsu Province of Jinghang Canal based on Spearman Rank Relational Coefficient and Binary regression Trend Line.