| Abstract: | When a final option for radioactive waste is determined, it is necessary to demonstrate compliance of disposal system chosen with relevant regulations. Considering the large number of physical and chemical factors involved, the complexity of their interrelationships, and long time periods, a system approach is required. A stochastic analysis is also needed to ensure that these regulatory criteria can be met with confidence. Among a variety of models developed to treat the effect of uncertainty on system performance, the first-order reliability method is suggested as an attractive tool to stochastic problems incorporating any amount of probabilistic information. Based on the first-order approximation, the method can give a probability of failure against a preselected target value, and information concerning the sensitivity of the outcome to variations in the input random variables and their statistical moments. In this paper, for reliable prediction of the performance of repository for radioactive wastes, first-order reliability method is applied in treating the parameter uncertainties of predictive models. First, a thickness of canister corrosion and breach time of canister is calculated using a uniform corrosion model, combined with the diffusional transport modeling of radionuclides in the backfill material. Second, a fractional release rate for each radionuclide is derived from the evaluation of the performance of a waste package which consists of canister and backfill material. Third, a cumulative release rate at the accessible environment is obtained by geosphere transport modeling with the source term given as a fractional release rate. The proposed first-order reliability method can be applicable to a full range of problems occurring in radioactive waste management and beyond. |
