长江中下游流域农村环境质量变化及影响因素研究

基于长江中下游流域6省17县市467家农户在2005~2010年期间关于农村环境对比变化的调查数据，构建了现代化进程中农村环境质量变化及影响因素的差分方程模型，并对近5年长江流域农村环境变化现状及其影响因素进行深入分析。结果表明，（1）我国长江中下游流域的农村环境质量下降变化出现了明显加快总趋势。其中长江中游流域地区农村环境质量下降变化明显比长江下游流域地区下降的变化幅度大,但长江中下游地区农业生产环境有显著好转。（2）长江中游和下游流域农村环境质量变化影响因素既有同质性也有差异性。其中同质性表现都对自然资源过度开发和人们环保意识弱。差异性体现长江中游地区影响环境变化的主要因素是城市化和农业现代化进程加快造成环境质量快速下降，而长江下游农村地区主要是人口压力大，工业化程度和城乡一体化程度高，农村地区面对生活排放和工业排放的叠加影响，从而造成环境质量的下降。研究结论对实现我国工业化、城市化和农业现代化同步发展的“十二·五”规划目标具有实际意义

RURAL ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY CHANGES AND ITS INFLUENCING FACTORS IN LOWER-AND-MIDDLE REACHES OF THE YANGTZE RIVER

Based on the research data of rural environmental changes of 467 rural households in 17 counties of 6 provinces of Lower-and-Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River in the period of 2005～2010,this paper has established a differential equation model of rural environmental changes and its influencing factors in the process of modernization,and conducted an in-depth analysis about the present condition and the affecting factors during the past five years.The results show that there is a decided downward trend of rural environmental quality indicators in Lower-and-Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River of our country,and the conditions of rural areas in Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River represent a greater decline in rural environmental quality than that of the Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River,but agricultural production environment has marked improvement in Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River.The influencing factors of rural environmental quality changes in Lower and Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River are both homogeneous and also has difference.Homogeneous reflects in excessive development of natural resources and people’s weak awareness of environmental protection.Difference shows that the main influencing factors of rural environmental quality changes in Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River is that the process of urbanization and agricultural modernization speed up the falling of environment quality.But in Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River,population pressure,high degree of industrialization and the integration of urban and rural areas,rural areas facing superposition influence of life and industrial waste disposal,these factors caused a drop of rural environmental quality.The conclusion provides policy recommendations for the objective of "The Eleventh Five-Year" Plan which devoted to promote the simultaneous development of national industrialization,urbanization and agricultural modernization.