| Abstract: | ABSTRACT: Using a Geographic Information System (GIS), a method is presented to develop a spatially explicit time series of land use in an urbanizing watershed. The method is prefaced on the existence of independent observations of land use at different times and data that describes the spatial‐temporal land use transition characteristics of the watershed between these two points in time. A method is then presented to generalize the TR‐55 graphical method, a common lumped hydrologic model for estimating peak discharge, for use in a spatially explicit scheme. This scheme predicts peak discharge throughout a watershed, rather than at a single selected watershed outlet. Coupling these two methods allows the engineer to model both the temporal and spatial evolution of peak discharge for the watershed. An illustrative watershed in a suburban area of Washington, DC is selected to demonstrate the methods. The model results from these analyses are presented graphically to highlight the complex features in peak discharge behavior that exist both spatially, as a function of position within the watershed drainage network, and temporally, as the watershed undergoes urbanization. These features are not commonly noted in most hydrologic analyses but are captured in these analyses because of the high spatial and temporal resolution of the methods presented. The physical implications of the modeled results are discussed in the context of the information content of a stream gauge located at the overall outlet of the illustrative watershed. This work shows that the common practice of transposition of gauge information to locations internal to the watershed would neglect internal variability in peak discharge behavior, and could potentially lead to the determination of inappropriate design discharges. |
