Satellite-Derived Mean Fire Return Intervals As Indicators Of Change In Siberia (1995–2002) |
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Authors: | Amber J Soja Herman H Shugart Anatoly Sukhinin Susan Conard Paul W Stackhouse Jr |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia 22903, USA;(2) Sukachev Forest Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnojarsk, 660036, Russia;(3) USDA Forest Service, Rosslyn Plaza-C 4th floor, 1601 North Kent Street, Arlington, Virginia 22209, USA;(4) Present address: NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia 23681, USA |
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Abstract: | Under current climate change scenarios, temperatures in Siberia are expected to increase, and consequently, fire is also expected
to increase. Potential climate-induced change is difficult to assess in Siberia because ground-based fire data are not complete.
This investigation introduces a method by which potential climate-induced change can be remotely evaluated. Mean fire return
intervals are established for 58 ecosystems across Siberia using eight years of satellite-based area burned data (1995 to
2002). Mean fire return intervals should decrease under current climate change scenarios, however the results do not currently
demonstrate consistent evidence of fire-induced change. The overall boreal forest mean fire return interval is lower than
the published mean, inferring increased fire. Most notably, using satellite data to calculate mean fire return intervals in
individual ecosystems for the entire population of fire is shown to be a viable method by which potential climate-induced
land cover change can be evaluated. |
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Keywords: | area burned AVHRR boreal forest climate change fire fire return interval Siberia wildfire satellite |
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