Modeling groundwater flow and its associated environmental problem in a lowland coastal plain: a first step towards a sustainable development plan

Groundwater is an important resource in the alluvial coastal lowland plains. In the Shiroishi lowland plain, southwestern Kyushu Island of Japan, land subsidence due to groundwater development has long been recognized as an environmental issue. Land subsidence can have several negative economic and social implications. In this study, an integrated numerical groundwater and land subsidence model, which combines a three-dimensional numerical groundwater flow model and a one-dimensional soil consolidation model, was used to simulate the dynamic groundwater flow and ground subsidence due to pumping. On the other hand, a groundwater optimization model was also formulated to search for an optimal safe yield of groundwater pumping without violating physical, environmental, social-economic constraints. The model results reveal that groundwater levels in the aquifers greatly vary from season to season in response to varying climatic and pumping conditions. Consequently, land subsidence has rapidly occurred throughout the area with the central prone in Shiroishi plain. The study also proposes a countermeasure against subsiding process in the area by means of numerical models. The optimization model result suggests that pumping can be increased in the northern part of the study area without leading to significant land subsidence.