| 基于系统动力学模型的大连市水资源承载力研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐毅,孙才志. 基于系统动力学模型的大连市水资源承载力研究[J]. 安全与环境学报, 2008, 8(6) |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐毅 孙才志 |
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| 作者单位： | 辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院,辽宁大连,116029 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于大连市水资源现状,采用系统动力学方法建立大连市水资源承载力系统动力学模型.将水资源承载力系统划分为人口、工业、农业、水污染处理及回用、城市环境及水资源6个子系统,在现状延续型、节水型、经济发展型和协调发展型4种方案下模拟了2001-2020年大连市水资源承载力的动态变化.结果表明,方案1～3均难以满足大连市未来社会经济发展需求,而方案4是提高大连市水资源承载力的可行方案,该方案下模拟的2020年大连市可承载的工业总产值和城镇人口分别达9527亿元和453 8万人.
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| 关 键 词： | 水资源保护 水资源承载力 系统动力学模型 大连市 |
Simulation of water resources carrying capacity based on a system dynamic model in Dalian |
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| XU Yi,SUN Cai-zhi. Simulation of water resources carrying capacity based on a system dynamic model in Dalian[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2008, 8(6) |
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| Authors: | XU Yi SUN Cai-zhi |
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| Affiliation: | XU Yi,SUN Cai-zhi(College of Urban , Environment,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,Liaoning,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper would like to introduce the author's system dynamic model to be used for the study of water resources carrying capacity of Dalian. The so-called system dynamic model of water resources carrying capacity has been established,which is divided into 6 sub-systems,that is,the population subsystem,industrial subsystem,agricultural subsystem,polluted water treating and reclamation subsystem,urban environment subsystem,as well as water resource exploitation subsystem. The above research model has been de... |
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| Keywords: | water resources conservation water resource carrying capacity system dynamic model Dalian city |
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