Using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to estimate public health impacts of PM2.5 from individual power plants

We estimated PM_2.5-related public health impacts/ton emitted of primary PM_2.5, SO₂, and NO_x for a set of power plants in the Mid-Atlantic and Lower Great Lakes regions of the United States, selected to include varying emission profiles and broad geographic representation. We then developed a regression model explaining variability in impacts per ton emitted using the population distributions around each plant. We linked outputs from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model v 4.7.1 with census data and concentration–response functions for PM_2.5-related mortality, and monetized health estimates using the value-of-statistical-life. The median impacts for the final set of plants were $130,000/ton for primary PM_2.5 (range: $22,000–230,000), $28,000/ton for SO₂ (range: $19,000–33,000), and $16,000/ton for NOx (range: $7100–26,000). Impacts of NO_x were a median of 34% (range: 20%–75%) from ammonium nitrate and 66% (range: 25%–79%) from ammonium sulfate. The latter pathway is likely from NO_x enhancing atmospheric oxidative capacity and amplifying sulfate formation, and is often excluded. Our regression models explained most of the variation in impact/ton estimates using basic population covariates, and can aid in estimating impacts averted from interventions such as pollution controls, alternative energy installations, or demand-side management.