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Predicting the frequency of accidents in port areas by developing event trees from historical analysis |
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| Authors: | A Ronza S Flez R M Darbra S Carol J A Vílchez J Casal |
| Institution: | Centre d’Estudis del Risc Tecnològic (CERTEC), Department of Chemical Engineering, E.T.S.E.I.B., Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya–Institut d’Estudis Catalans, Diagonal 647, 08028, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain |
| Abstract: | The historical analysis of 828 accidents in port areas, which have been selected from a database, has been used to identify the sequences of the accidents. Processing these data has allowed the event trees and the probability of the various accident scenarios to be determined. By using these event trees and figures detailing the frequency of the events that initiated the accidents, as taken from various authors, the frequency of the accidents has been determined. |
| Keywords: | Ports Accidents Historical analysis Risk analysis Event trees Environmental assessment |
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