Understanding farmers' influence on land-use change using a participatory Bayesian network approach in a pre-Alpine region in Switzerland |
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Authors: | Enrico Celio Adrienne Grêt-Regamey |
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Affiliation: | Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, Institute for Spatial and Landscape Development, Planning of Landscape and Urban Systems (PLUS), ETH Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland |
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Abstract: | Land-use models can be used to assess the importance of different drivers of land-use change. Local actors make land-use decisions on the basis of both biophysical and policy aspects, but they can also be considered as autonomous drivers as their attitudes and beliefs influence land-use substantially. We use a Bayesian network-based Land-use Modeling Approach (BLUMAP) to analyze influences of local actor characteristics on land-use change in a spatially explicit manner. Our analysis shows that local actor characteristics have a greater influence on land-use change than changes in agricultural policy schemes. Furthermore, focusing on the probabilities of land-use occurrence under different scenarios facilitates the quantification of influences of local actor characteristics on land-use changes and aids in the detection of where land-use changes are more likely to occur. We demonstrate that local actor characteristics could override land-use policy trends; thus, greater consideration should be paid to actors in land-use development processes. |
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Keywords: | land-use modeling local actors analysis of land-use drivers probability Bayesian networks |
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