Response of non-point source pollutant loads to climate change in the Shitoukoumen reservoir catchment |
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Authors: | Lei Zhang Wenxi Lu Yonglei An Di Li Lei Gong |
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Institution: | (1) Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Ministry of Education, College of Environment and Resources, Jilin University, Changchun, 130021, China; |
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Abstract: | The impacts of climate change on streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads in the Shitoukoumen reservoir catchment are
predicted by combining a general circulation model (HadCM3) with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model.
A statistical downscaling model was used to generate future local scenarios of meteorological variables such as temperature
and precipitation. Then, the downscaled meteorological variables were used as input to the SWAT hydrological model calibrated
and validated with observations, and the corresponding changes of future streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads in
Shitoukoumen reservoir catchment were simulated and analyzed. Results show that daily temperature increases in three future
periods (2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099) relative to a baseline of 1961–1990, and the rate of increase is 0.63°C per
decade. Annual precipitation also shows an apparent increase of 11 mm per decade. The calibration and validation results showed
that the SWAT model was able to simulate well the streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads, with a coefficient of determination
of 0.7 and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of about 0.7 for both the calibration and validation periods. The future climate change
has a significant impact on streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads. The annual streamflow shows a fluctuating upward
trend from 2010 to 2099, with an increase rate of 1.1 m3 s−1 per decade, and a significant upward trend in summer, with an increase rate of 1.32 m3 s−1 per decade. The increase in summer contributes the most to the increase of annual load compared with other seasons. The annual
NH4+-N load into Shitoukoumen reservoir shows a significant downward trend with a decrease rate of 40.6 t per decade. The annual
TP load shows an insignificant increasing trend, and its change rate is 3.77 t per decade. The results of this analysis provide
a scientific basis for effective support of decision makers and strategies of adaptation to climate change. |
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