火灾定量预测方法研究

应用预测学原理，对火灾定量预测方法进行了探讨，建立了一套适应不同火灾历史统计特点的平滑预测模型：滑动平均预测模型和指数平滑预测模型；考虑火灾事故的季节性变化，建立了季节性平滑预测模型。应用二重指数平滑预测模型和季节性平滑预测模型，对荆州地区１９９３￣１９９４年的火灾统计资料进行分析和预测，结果表明该地区今后的火灾发生呈上升趋势，提请有关部门注意防火安全。

ON THE QUANTITATIVE PREDICTION OF FIRE

The quantitative prediction techniques of fire are discussed in this paper.A set of prediction models that suit for the statistic characteristics in various fire histories have been established,including a smoothing model and an exponential distribution model.With regard to the seasonal variation of fire,a seasonal smoothing prediction model is proposed.By utilizing the two-fold exponential distribution model and seasonal smoothing model,the statistic data of fire in Jingzhou region of Hubei province are analyzed and predicted.The results show an ascending trend in the number of fire in the region.The fire safety should be paid attention to for the fact.