Estimation of Mussel Population Response to Hydrologic Alteration in a Southeastern U.S. Stream |
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Authors: | Email author" target="_blank">James?T?PetersonEmail author Jason?M?Wisniewski Colin?P?Shea C?Rhett Jackson |
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Institution: | (1) U.S. Geological Survey, Georgia Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, Athens, GA 30602, USA;(2) Present address: U.S. Geological Survey, Oregon Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA;(3) Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Wildlife Resources Division, Nongame Conservation Section, Social Circle, GA 30025, USA;(4) Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA |
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Abstract: | The southeastern United States has experienced severe, recurrent drought, rapid human population growth, and increasing agricultural
irrigation during recent decades, resulting in greater demand for the water resources. During the same time period, freshwater
mussels (Unioniformes) in the region have experienced substantial population declines. Consequently, there is growing interest in determining how
mussel population declines are related to activities associated with water resource development. Determining the causes of
mussel population declines requires, in part, an understanding of the factors influencing mussel population dynamics. We developed
Pradel reverse-time, tag-recapture models to estimate survival, recruitment, and population growth rates for three federally
endangered mussel species in the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin, Georgia. The models were parameterized using
mussel tag-recapture data collected over five consecutive years from Sawhatchee Creek, located in southwestern Georgia. Model
estimates indicated that mussel survival was strongly and negatively related to high flows during the summer, whereas recruitment
was strongly and positively related to flows during the spring and summer. Using these models, we simulated mussel population
dynamics under historic (1940–1969) and current (1980–2008) flow regimes and under increasing levels of water use to evaluate
the relative effectiveness of alternative minimum flow regulations. The simulations indicated that the probability of simulated
mussel population extinction was at least 8 times greater under current hydrologic regimes. In addition, simulations of mussel
extinction under varying levels of water use indicated that the relative risk of extinction increased with increased water
use across a range of minimum flow regulations. The simulation results also indicated that our estimates of the effects of
water use on mussel extinction were influenced by the assumptions about the dynamics of the system, highlighting the need
for further study of mussel population dynamics. |
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