Multi-hazard failure assessment of atmospheric storage tanks during hurricanes |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Chemical Engineering, Universidad de los Andes, Carrera 1E #19A-40, Bogotá (Colombia);2. Department of Civil Engineering, Florida Institute of Technology, 3012 Engineering St, Melbourne, FL 32901 (United States);3. Department of Civil, Chemical, Environmental and Materials, Università di Bologna, Via Terracini 28, 40131 Bologna (Italy);1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,Universidad de los Andes,Bogotá,Colombia;2. Department of Chemical Engineering,Universidad de los Andes,Bogotá,Colombia |
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Abstract: | Hurricane as one of the most destructive natural hazards can make a devastating impact on the industrial equipment, especially atmospheric storage tanks, leading to the release of stored chemicals and disastrous safety and environmental issues. These catastrophic consequences are caused not only by strong winds but also by the torrential rainfall and inundating floods. The objective of this study is to present a risk-based methodology for assessing and reducing the vulnerability of atmospheric storage tanks to hurricanes. Considering the shell buckling, flotation, sliding, and roof sinking as dominant failure modes of atmospheric storage tanks during hurricanes, Bayesian network (BN) has been employed to combine the failure modes while considering their conditional dependencies. The probability updating feature of the developed BN was employed to indicate that the flood is the most critical hazard during hurricanes while the impact of wind and rainfall cannot be neglected. Extending the developed BN to an influence diagram, the cost-benefit filling of storage tanks with water prior to the advent of hurricanes was shown as a viable measure for reducing the damage probability. The results show that the proposed methodology can be used as an effective decision support tool for assessing and reducing the vulnerability of atmospheric storage tanks to natural hazards. |
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Keywords: | Hurricanes Multi-hazard failure assessment Natech accidents Atmospheric storage tanks Bayesian network Cost-benefit analysis |
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