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Survey-based analysis of evacuation preparation behaviors in a chemical leakage accident: A case study |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Institute of Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China;2. Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, NC, 27708, USA;1. School of Engineering and Technology, China University of Geosciences Beijing, Beijing 100083, China;2. Centre of Logistics and Heuristic Optimization (CLHO), Kent Business School, University of Kent, Canterbury CT2 7FS, United Kingdom;1. School of Engineering and Technology, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China;2. Chinese Academy of Governance, Beijing 100089, China;1. State Key Laboratory of Fire Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China;2. Collaborative Innovation Center for Urban Public Safety, Anhui Province, Hefei 230026, China;3. Rudong Coastal Development Zone of Jiangsu, Rudong 226407, China |
| Abstract: | Public evacuation preparation exerts an important impact on overall evacuation efficiency during regional evacuations. Early warnings often delay the occurrence of chemical accidents. Studying the characteristics of public evacuation preparation in such accidents will help develop better evacuation strategies considering the actual public response. In this work, the characteristics and factors influencing public evacuation preparation behaviors were analyzed by examining an evacuation case in China. The results indicated that the probability distribution of public's evacuation preparation time during a regional evacuation conforms to a Weibull distribution regardless of whether or not evacuation warnings were received. An estimation model of the traffic flow loading rate in a regional evacuation was then proposed on the basis of this finding. The results of this research can provide a reliable reference for evacuation modeling or logistics optimization for future incidents. |
| Keywords: | Chemical leakage accidents Regional evacuation Evacuation preparation Emergency logistics management |
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