Non-ferrous metals and economic growth: The future demand for lead

As national economies grow, requirements for physical resources increase. This paper attempts to forecast future world demand for lead, by deriving a relationship between the amount consumed per capita and the level of economic development, and then using this to generate world demand figures based on some predictions of future economic growth. Although the rate of increase in demand for lead may decline as high levels of GDP are reached, it is nevertheless predicted that world annual demand could continue rising exponentially over the next 50 or 60 years, in the absence of constraints due to lack of physical resources or very high differential prices. This is essentially because large areas of the world will still be increasing their GDP per capita over the range where the rate of increase in demand for lead is increasing steeply.