水资源项目治理的社会网络动态分析

水资源项目治理中的利益相关方之间相互作用而形成关系网络,这种网络结构会随着项目生命周期发生变化,目前基于单阶段静态网络的研究难以满足这种动态治理角色网络分析的需要。科学合理的分析项目治理社会网络的动态变化,引导其健康发展对提高利益相关方之间的合作水平,进而提高项目成功率意义重大。本文以某大型水资源信息系统项目为例,综合应用社会网络分析与系统动力学方法,分析水资源项目治理社会网络的动态变化过程,构建系统动力学模型,对大型水资源项目系统结构进行仿真模拟,通过敏感性分析,探索控制项目治理风险的有效途径。

Dynamic Social Network Analysis on Water Resources Project Governance

Relationships of stakeholders in water resources project governance compose a social network,which will change over the project’s lifecycle.At present,research based on single-stage static network is insufficient for the analysis of the social network in dynamic governance.Scientific and rational analysis of the dynamic social network in project governance and its healthy development are significant to improve the level of cooperation among stakeholders and to improve the project success rate.With the large information system project on water resources as an example and with overall application of social network analysis and system dynamics,this paper analyses the dynamics of the social network in project governance,builds system dynamics model to simulate the system structure and also discusses effective ways to control project governance risk through sensitivity analysis.