Economic feasibility of adapting crop enterprises to future climate change: a case study of flexible scheduling and irrigation for representative farms in Flathead Valley,Montana, USA |
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Authors: | Zeyuan Qiu Tony Prato |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Chemistry and Environmental Science, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, NJ 07102, USA;(2) Center of Applied Research and Environmental Systems, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, USA |
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Abstract: | Future climate change directly impacts crop agriculture by altering temperature and precipitation regimes, crop yields, crop
enterprise net returns, and net farm income. Most previous studies assess the potential impacts of agricultural adaptation
to climate change on crop yields. This study attempts to evaluate the potential impacts of crop producers’ adaptation to future
climate change on crop yield, crop enterprise net returns, and net farm income in Flathead Valley, Montana, USA. Crop enterprises
refer to the combinations of inputs (e.g., land, labor, and capital) and field operations used to produce a crop. Two crop
enterprise adaptations are evaluated: flexible scheduling of field operations; and crop irrigation. All crop yields are simulated
using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model. Net farm income is assessed for small and large representative
farms and two soils in the study area. Results show that average crop yields in the future period (2006–2050) without adaptation
are between 7% and 48% lower than in the historical period (1960–2005). Flexible scheduling of the operations used in crop
enterprises does not appear to be an economically efficient form of crop enterprise adaptation because it does not improve
crop yields and crop enterprise net returns in the future period. With irrigation, crop yields are generally higher for all
crop enterprises and crop enterprise net returns increase for the canola and alfalfa enterprises but decrease for all other
assessed crop enterprises relative to no adaptation. Overall, average crop enterprise net return in the future period is 45%
lower with than without irrigation. Net farm income decreases for both the large and small representative farms with both
flexible scheduling and irrigation. Results indicate that flexible scheduling and irrigation adaptation are unlikely to reduce
the potential adverse economic impacts of climate change on crop producers in Montana’s Flathead Valley. |
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