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| Authors: | Yang Guifang Huang Changsheng Yin Hongfu Li Chang'an |
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| Institution: | 1. State Key Laborary of Estuarine and Coastal Research , East China Normal University , Shanghai , 200062 , China;2. China University of Geosciences , Wuhan , 430074 , China |
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| Abstract: | Abstract In the light of the historical substantial data (covering a 70-year period) collected in the Lower Jingjiang segment and aided by topological grey method, here we attempt to characterize the occurrence and future trend of flood calamities in the study area. Our findings indicate that overall the high-frequent flood disasters with middle to lower damage prevail at present. A series of dramatic flood waves will appear in the years of 2016, 2022, 2030 and 2042, particularly a destructive flood will occur between 2041 and 2045 in the Lower Jingjiang reaches. Typical of sensitive response to flood hazards in close association with its special geographical location, the lower Jingjiang segment hereby can reflect the development trend of floods in the middle Yangtze reaches. According to the results, a good fitness was revealed between the prediction and practical values. This actually hints that the topological grey method is an effective mathematical means of resolving problems containing uncertainty and indetermination, thus providing valuable information for the flood prediction in the middle Yangtze catchment. |
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| Keywords: | flood hazard prediction occurrence future trend grey system method lower jingjiang reaches |
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