我国北方地区城市水资源策略优化研究

在分析各种水资源危机对策的基础上,提出利用阈值分析作为城市水资源策略的优化方法,以确定最佳的水资源策略方案.并以北京市为例,采用该方法对水资源策略进行了初步的优化分析.分析结果表明,北京水资源策略中水源保护的阈值明显优于其他策略的阈值,跨流域调水和海水淡化策略的阈值较高.从长期技术发展看,海水淡化是最有潜力的水资源策略.

Optimization of strategies for urban water resources in North China

This paper aims at analyzing the water shortage problem in Northern China cities, trying to find optimum solutions to the exploitation of the existing water resources. Water shortage has been a serious problem confronted by many Northern China cities, which has brought unfavorable influence on the economic development and ecological qualities of people's life. Dozens of well-thought and carefully planned strategies have so far been put forward to solve it but only limited results have been achieved. The authors made a threshold analysis of the potentially effective ways to economic water resource exploitation, such as the threshold ratio of all kinds of costs to benefits of a given strategy. That is to say, the lower its threshold is, the better the strategy will be. The present paper takes Beijing as example. Water resources protection of Beijing has been done marvelously, but it is still short of water supply. The real problem is the shortage of available water resources. The tremendous project of south-north water transfer under construction has proved time- and labor-consuming. Needless to say, the threshold of seawater desalting project is also highly costing, but in the long run it is available for the unlimited amount of water supply. It can be proved that with the advances of desalting technology, seawater desalting will be the potentially most effective solution to North China's water resource shortage problem. In this connection, the threshold data and figure have been illustrated in an experimental form. The case study confirms the practicability and operability of the threshold analysis method.