轮作休耕对劳动力转移的影响——以河北、甘肃、云南三省为例

近年来,中国耕地的不合理利用引发了一系列严重的问题,为此国家提出“探索实行耕地轮作休耕制度试点”这一重要举措。劳动力是农业的主要生产要素,归纳总结农户休耕和劳动力转移的情况,准确掌握休耕面积对劳动力转移产生的影响,对进一步推动国家轮作休耕政策、现代化发展和城镇化具有重要的战略意义。基于此,利用河北、甘肃、云南三省六县1542户农户家庭的相关调研数据,对农户休耕、劳动力转移等情况进行了分析,并运用Tobit回归模型定量分析农户休耕面积对劳动力转移数量的影响。研究结果表明：（1）研究区内农户休耕比例与户均休耕面积存在差异,且休耕比例与户均休耕面积大小均为甘肃省>云南省>河北省。（2）研究区内有62.97%的家庭存在劳动力转移现象,且休耕农户劳动力转移数量远超未休耕农户。（3）核心变量休耕面积对劳动力转移存在显著的正向影响;控制变量中,农户家庭总人口、户主性别、劳动力受教育水平、医疗支出、住宅距公路距离和劳均工资对劳动力转移存在显著的正向影响,而家庭抚养比则对劳动力转移存在显著的负向影响。

Effect of rotation fallow on labor transfer: A case study in three provinces of Hebei,Gansu and Yunnan

In recent years, the unreasonable use of cultivated land in China has caused a series of serious problems. Therefore, the state has put forward an important measure of "Exploring Pilot Program of Farmland Rotation and Fallow System ". Labor force is one of the main factors of agricultural production. Therefore, it is of strategic significance to further promote the national rotation fallow policy, modernization and urbanization to sum up the situation of farmer's rotation fallow land and labor force transfer and grasp the effect of fallow area on labor force transfer. Based on this, this paper uses the relevant survey data of 1542 households in six counties of Hebei, Gansu and Yunnan provinces to analyze the situation of farmer's rotation fallow land and labor transfer, and uses Tobit regression model to quantitatively analyze the impact of fallow area on labor transfer. The results show that: (1) There is a difference between the ratio of fallow households and fallow area per household in the study area, and the order of which is both Gansu > Yunnan > Hebei; (2) 62.97% of the households in the study area have the phenomenon of labor transfer, and the number of labor transfer of fallow households far exceeds that of non-fallow households; (3) The core variable, fallow area, has a significant positive impact on labor transfer; the control variable, the total household population, gender of householder, labor education level, medical expenditure, the distance from residence to highway and average wage per labor force have a significant positive impact on labor transfer, while the dependency ratio has a significant negative impact on labor transfer.