Methodische Aspekte probabilistischer Modellierung

The main topic of probabilistic modelling is to introduce the subject of variability into exposure assessment. Instead of fixed parameters (means, percentiles), each variable will be expressed in the mathematical form of a distribution of their realisations in the population of interest. The technique of Monte Carlo simulations also makes complex models computable. The results are expressions of variation and uncertainty in exposure assessment. The text discusses the principle and new methodical efforts in modelling: The fit of input distributions, the technical realizations and possibilities in documentation of the results.