区域主要食物资源安全评价及其安全对策——以福建省为例

运用食物安全性指标(FSI)、食物安全性指标均值(MVFSI)和食物安全性指标变异系数(VCFSI)3个指标,对1991~2005年福建省居民日常生活中的粮食、蔬菜、水果、猪肉、牛羊肉、禽肉、蛋类、奶类、水产品等9类食物的安全性状况及其变化趋势进行了定量分析。结果表明:福建省粮食生产处于极不安全的水平,粮食缺口逐年加大主要是由于间接粮食消费量的线性增长所引起的,而间接粮食消费又主要是由于猪肉和蛋类等耗粮型畜牧业的过度生产而导致的。牛羊肉、禽肉和奶类3类食物安全性水平较低,尤其是奶类从1998年以来,已出现亏缺状态。猪肉和蛋类安全性水平虽较高,但这两类食物属于耗粮型畜产品,面临着福建省粮食极不安全的现实,其较高的安全性完全有赖于省外粮食的进口,故区外粮食市场的波动对其影响极大,因此其安全性水平也不容乐观。水果和水产品则处于极为安全的水平,这主要是由福建省的地理位置条件所决定的。15年来蔬菜生产得到巨大发展,安全水平不断提高。总体而言福建省食物安全状况不容乐观。最后,为提高福建省食物安全水平,提出了相关的政策和建议。

Regional Security Evaluation of Main Food Resources and its Security Countermeasures: A Case Study on Fujian Province

Based on the food security index (FSI), mean value of food security index (MVFSI), variable coefficient of food security index (VCFSI), the security changing trends of nine kinds of food in Fujian province from 1991 to 2005 were quantitatively analyzed, which were the grain, vegetables, fruit, beef and cotton, poultry, meat, eggs, milk and aquatic products. The results showed that: The security situation of grain production was in an extremely low level, the gap between supplies and demands of grain became bigger year by year because of the linear increasing of the indirect grain consumption, which was caused by the overproduction of meat and eggs of high-grain consuming products. Entering the year 2000, the shortage of grain became more and more serious; for example in 2005, the shortage amount of grain was 1.65 times of its output. The MVFSI value of beef and cotton, poultry products and milk were 0.16, 0.13 and 0.05, which meant that the production of these three kinds of food can only meet the requirement of the people in Fujian province. But their VCFSI values were all very big, which meant that their outputs fluctuated obviously, and their secure situation was in a low level. The case of milk was particularly so because it could not satisfy the demands of the people since 1998. The FSI value of meat and eggs were all bigger than 0.40 during the past 15 years, their MVFSI values were 0.48 and 0.52, and their VCFSIs were both very small, which meant that the meat and eggs were in a relatively high security level. But these two kinds of food belong to grain-consuming animal products,facing an extremely low security level of grain in Fujian province. Their security level were totally depended on the grain import outside of Fujian, therefore their security was greatly influenced by the fluctuating of the grain output outside; as a result, the security level of the two kinds of food was not so optimistic. The FSI value of fruit and aquatic products were all bigger than 0.70 in the past 15 years, their MVFSIs were 0.76 and 0.91, and their VCFSIs were lower in 0.07 and 0.01, which meant that the two kinds of food were in an extremely high security level, and the surplus could be sold or saved. Since 1991, the production of vegetables has been highly developed, therefore its security level has been increased continuously. As a whole, the food security level of Fujian province was not so optimistic. Finally, in order to improve the food security level in Fujian province, some advices and policies were put forward.