基于突变理论的非常规突发事件下个体行为状态研究

针对非常规突发事件下个体行为状态,考虑物质环境、社会环境和个体属性等因素,建立评价影响个体行为状态的3级指标体系;在分析非常规突发事件下个体行为状态突变特征的基础上,建立非常规突发事件下个体行为状态的尖点突变模型;采用突变级数法对4类非常规突发事件进行实例分析,得到4类突发事件下个体行为状态的影响度。实例表明,不同类型非常规突发事件下个体行为状态的影响度不同;重大自然灾害和公共卫生类型突发事件中个体行为所受影响最大,社会安全事件次之,事故灾难突发事件中最小。

Study of Individual Behavior State in Unconventional Emergencies Based on Theory of Catastrophe

Based on the individual behavior state in unconventional emergencies,with considering physical environment,social environment and individual attribute,a three-level assessment indexes system for individual behavior state was provided.Meanwhile,based on the analysis of the catastrophic characterization of individual behavior state in unconventional emergencies,the cusp catastrophic model to analyze the changes of individual behavior state in unconventional emergencies was also established.A case study was made for four types of emergencies by using progression method,and their impact degrees on individual behavior state was obtained.It shows that the impact of different types of unconventional emergencies on individual behavior is different;the grave natural disasters and public health emergencies have the biggest impact on individual behavior,then followed in sequence by social security incidents and accidents disaster.