| 我国工伤事故死亡率分析及其ARIMA预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 李榕.我国工伤事故死亡率分析及其ARIMA预测[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(11). |
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| 作者姓名： | 李榕 |
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| 作者单位： | 闽江学院旅游系,福州,350108 |
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| 摘 要： | 对我国工伤事故死亡率的历史数据进行分析,介绍ARIMA模型预测法。根据统计学理论,运用ARIMA模型,借助相关软件预测我国工伤事故死亡率,可知未来几年,工伤事故的千人死亡率总体上呈逐年下降的趋势;与移动平均法、指数平滑法预测结果作比较,可知ARIMA模型预测效果最佳;同时,由于影响工伤事故的因素很多,与长期预测相比,ARIMA模型更适合于对工伤事故死亡率作短期预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 工伤事故 死亡率 差分自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型 趋势 预测 |
Analysis and ARIMA Forecasting of Industrial Accident Death Rates in China |
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| LI Rong.Analysis and ARIMA Forecasting of Industrial Accident Death Rates in China[J].China Safety Science Journal,2010,20(11). |
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| Authors: | LI Rong |
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| Abstract: | The industrial accident death rates in China are analyzed and the ARIMA(autoregressive integrated moving average) model is introduced.The industrial accident death rates in China are forecasted with the ARIMA model according to statistics theory.It can be concluded that the industrial accident death rates will descend in the total trend in the future,the forecasting effect of ARIMA model is better than that of move average method and index smooth method.Besides,ARIMA model is fitter for the short-term forecasting of the industrial accident death rates than for the long-term forecasting because the factors affecting industrial accidents are various. |
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| Keywords: | industrial accidents death rates autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model trend forecasting |
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