煤炭能源安全测度指标体系与综合评价

为促进国家能源健康持续发展,从煤炭安全压力、状态、响应3个子系统出发构建了煤炭安全测度指标体系,科学评价了煤炭安全的程度。通过确定各子系统的集成权重建立了煤炭安全度和煤炭安全系统协调发展度评价模型,以此研究煤炭安全状况并对其发展趋势进行预测。结果表明:1997—2008年在各子系统共同作用下煤炭安全度呈2周期移动平均曲线变化趋势,系统协调发展度处于勉强协调与中级协调之间,这期间煤炭运输和能源效率是煤炭安全最重要的影响因素;在此基础预测2009—2016年煤炭安全度呈快速上升趋势,但系统协调发展度出现下降态势并趋向失调衰退。从子系统考虑煤炭安全的影响因素与变化趋势,促进其协调作用机制的形成,是保障能源安全的重要途径。

Measurement Indicator System & Comprehensive Appraisal for Coal Energy Security in China

In order to promote sustainable development and health growth of nation energy,this paper designs a measurement indicator system for coal energy security,which includes coal security pressure,coal security state and coal security response,and appraises the situation of China's coal energy security scientifically.The evaluation model for coal security level and coordinated development degree is established by computing the sub-system integrated weights.The status and developing tendency of coal security are researched.The results show that,coal security level shows a fluctuating uprising tendency of two cycles from 1997 to 2008,while the coordination development degree varies from partial harmony to secondary harmony under the together function of three subsystems.Coal transportation and energy efficiency are the dominant impact factors during this period.According to the predicted results,coal security level is on the rise obviously from 2009 to 2016,but the coordination development degree is in the decline,and then to the maladjustment state.Synthetically considering the influence factors and the development tendency from the angle of three subsystems and promoting the formation of their coordination function mechanism is the most important way to ensure coal security.