基于准自然实验的生态转移支付政策环境效应评价

生态转移支付政策的完善是深化生态补偿制度改革的重要组成部分. 为解决生态转移支付政策尚未充分改善环境质量这一现实问题，基于地方政府环境治理决策机理提出相应假设，选取山西省96个县域的环境和社会经济相关数据，运用倾向得分匹配-双重差分法评估生态转移支付政策的环境效应. 结果表明:生态转移支付政策的实施总体上在1%的显著性水平下改善了国家重点生态功能区所在县域的环境质量，但随着时间的推移，其环境效应逐渐变差. 生态转移支付资金规模的扩大进一步改善了环境质量，每增加1 000元生态转移支付资金，环境质量就得到2.285个百分点的改善，且生态转移支付政策的环境效应呈现出功能区类型、民族聚集程度的差异化特征. 进一步研究发现，贫困程度是导致不同地区生态转移支付政策环境效应存在差异的重要因素. 基于此，建议坚持实施生态转移支付政策，逐步扩大生态转移支付规模，强化生态转移支付资金分配的导向性和差异性，完善生态转移支付政策的市场化，多元化投入机制和完善补偿资金考核机制等，从多角度完善生态转移支付政策. 

Environmental Effect Evaluation of Ecological Transfer Payment Policy Based on Quasi-Natural Experiment

The improvement of ecological transfer payment policy is an important part of deepening the reform of ecological compensation system. In order to solve the practical problem that the ecological transfer payment policy has not fully improved the environmental quality, corresponding assumptions are put forward based on the environmental governance of local government decision mechanism. The environmental and social economic data of 96 counties in Shanxi Province were selected. The propensity score matching-double difference (PSM-DID) method was used to evaluate the ecological environment effect of transfer payment policy. The results show that the implementation of the ecological transfer payment policy has improved the environmental quality of the counties where the National Key Ecological Function Zones are located at the significance level of 1% on the whole, but its environmental effects have gradually deteriorated over time. The expansion of the scale of ecological transfer payment funds has further improved the environmental quality. For every additional 1000 RMB of ecological transfer payment funds, the environmental quality has been improved by 2.285 percentage points, and the environmental effects of the ecological transfer payment policies show different characteristics of functional zone types and ethnic aggregation degree. Further research found that poverty level is an important factor leading to differences in the environmental effects of ecological transfer payment policies in different regions. Based on this, from insisting on implementing the ecological transfer payment policy, gradually expanding the scale of ecological transfer payment, strengthening the guidance and differentiation of ecological transfer payment funds allocation, improving the marketization of ecological transfer payment policies, diversifying the investment mechanism and improving the assessment of compensation funds, some suggestions are put forward to perfect the ecological transfer payment policy.