京津冀地区NOx和VOCs协同减排成本及减排策略研究

京津冀地区细颗粒物(PM_2.5)浓度改善速度放缓，而臭氧(O₃)污染不断加剧，PM_2.5和O₃的协同控制对于京津冀地区空气质量持续改善十分关键且紧迫. 通过构建京津冀地区城市层面可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)，模拟了PM_2.5和O₃的共同前体物—NO_x和VOCs的边际减排成本曲线，进而构建了京津冀地区PM_2.5和O₃协同控制评估模型，确定了在不同空气质量目标下减排成本最小的NO_x和VOCs协同减排方案. 结果表明:减排成本最小的情景下，京津冀各城市PM_2.5和O₃浓度达到《环境空气质量标准》(GB 3095—2012)二级标准限值时；NO_x和VOCs的排放量需较2017年分别降低25%~67%和22%~60%，需要投入的总减排成本为992.9×108元. 研究显示，基于京津冀地区城市政策仿真平台构建的PM_2.5和O₃协同控制评估模型，可为京津冀地区PM_2.5和O₃协同控制方案的制定提供参考. 

Collaborative Emission Reduction Cost and Strategies of NOx and VOCs in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

In recent years, the concentration of particulate matter (PM_2.5) in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) Region decreased, while the concentration of ozone (O₃) increased. The coordinated control of PM_2.5 and O₃ is very critical and urgent for the continuous improvement of air quality in the BTH region. In this paper, a city-level computable general equilibrium model (CGE) of the BTH Region was constructed to simulate the marginal abatement cost curves of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), which are the precursors of PM_2.5 and O₃. We further constructed an evaluation model for PM_2.5 and O₃ co-control in the BTH Region and determined the lowest-cost control of NO_x and VOCs under different air quality targets. We found that if the emissions of NO_x and VOCs in cities of the BTH Region were reduced by 25%-67% and 22%-60%, respectively, the concentrations of PM_2.5 and O₃ could meet the limit of Class Ⅱ standard in Ambient Air Quality Standards (GB 3095-2012), and the gross cost could be as low as 99.29 billion RMB. The models constructed in this study can provide technical support for the control of PM_2.5 and O₃ in the BTH Region.