水足迹视角下黄土高原经济林果扩张的水安全风险分析——以苹果种植为例

以苹果为主的黄土高原经济林果种植规模持续扩张,耗水量不断增多,潜在的水安全风险增大。量化苹果生产水足迹,讨论苹果生产扩张带来的水安全风险,对科学指导未来黄土高原苹果健康发展具有重要意义。本文基于ArcGIS和CROPWAT软件,选取2000—2019年黄土高原44个市（州）,探究了苹果水足迹的时空分布规律及水安全风险。结果表明：2000—2019年,黄土高原苹果种植面积增长了1.3倍,产量增长了3.1倍,呈“北移西扩”的发展趋势;苹果绿水足迹占比的空间分布与降雨量基本一致,从东南向西北递减,蓝水足迹空间分布正好相反;苹果水足迹总量从74.42亿m³增长到108.04亿m³,占农业耗水量的比例由42.78%提升至65.63%,灰水足迹占比高达13.88%,黄土高原苹果生产面临严峻的水安全风险。因此,应适度控制黄土高原苹果种植规模的进一步扩张。本文可为评价黄土高原苹果种植规模扩张背后的水安全风险提供依据。

Analysis of water security risk of cash forest expansion in the Loess Plateau in terms of water footprint:A case study of apple planting

The continuous expansion of the planting area of cash forest in the Loess Plateau, which is dominated by apples, has caused increasing water consumption and potential water security risk. Quantifying the water footprint of apple production and discussing the water security risk affected by the apple production expansion are of great significance to scientifically guide the healthy development of the future apple planting in the plateau. Based on ArcGIS and CROPWAT software, 44 cities (prefectures) in the Loess Plateau from 2000 to 2019 were selected to explore the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of apple water footprint and water security risk. The results showed that from 2000 to 2019, the area of apple planting in the Loess Plateau increased by 1.3 times and the yield increased by 3.1 times, presenting a development trend of "moving toward the north and expanding to the west". The spatial distribution of apple green water footprint was basically consistent with that of rainfall, both of which decreased from southeast to northwest, but was opposite to the spatial distribution of blue water footprint. The total apple water footprint increased from 7.442 billion m³ to 10.804 billion m³, the proportion of apple water footprint to agricultural water consumption increased from 42.78% to 65.63%, and the proportion of gray water footprint reached 13.88%, which reflected the serious water security risk posed by apple production in the Loess Plateau. Therefore, further expansion of apple planting in the plateau should be controlled moderately. This study can provide a basis for evaluating the water security risk behind the expansion of apple planting in the Loess Plateau.