中国粮食生产效率与旅游发展的耦合机制及时空分异

粮食安全是国家安全的重要基础,而旅游产业是社会发展水平的重要体现。本文基于中国31个省（市、自治区）（不含港澳台地区）2010—2019年的省级面板数据,运用DEA-CCR模型和熵权法测算了各地粮食生产效率与旅游业发展水平,并在此基础上利用耦合协调模型、马尔科夫链和地理探测器探讨了两者的时空耦合协调演化特征及其影响机制。结果表明：（1）中国粮食生产效率与旅游产业发展水平均呈现出随时间演化而波动上升的态势,同时两者在区域间存在较为明显的不均衡现象;（2）粮食生产效率与旅游业发展水平呈现高度的耦合相关,两者的耦合协调关系经历了从“初级耦合协调”到“中级耦合协调”的演变,在空间上呈现出“东高西低”的差异化特征;（3）中国粮食生产效率与旅游业发展水平的耦合协调状态具有较高的稳定性,短期内难以实现耦合协调类型的跃迁;（4）区域经济发展水平（GDP）和第三产业劳动力（从业人数）是影响粮食生产效率与旅游产业耦合协调关系的核心驱动要素。

Coupling mechanism and spatiotemporal differentiation between grain production efficiency and tourism development in China

Food security is a major issue related to national security and social livelihood, and tourism industry is an important embodiment of social development. While a close interaction exists between grain production and tourism, the correlation mechanism between grain production and tourism, including the evolution characteristics in the time and space dimensions, has not yet been clarified in existing studies. This study uses DEA-CCR model and entropy weight method to calculate the local grain production efficiency and tourism development level using panel data of 31 provincial-level regions in China (excluding data from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) from 2010 to 2019. The coupling coordination model, Markov chain and geological detector are used to discuss their spatiotemporal coupling coordination characteristics and influence mechanisms. The results show that: (1) The grain production efficiency and tourism industry development level in China are fluctuating with the elaspe of time, and there is an obvious imbalance between regions. (2) Grain production efficiency and the tourism development level show a high degree of coupling correlation. The coupling and coordination relationship between the two has evolved from "primary coupling and coordination" to "intermediate coupling and coordination," and shows the differentiation characteristics of "high in the east and low in the west" in terms of space. (3) The coupling coordination between the national grain production efficiency and the tourism development level is relatively stable, making it difficult to realize the transition of the coupling coordination type in the short term. (4) Regional economic development level (GDP) and tertiary industry labor force (number of employees) are the core driving factors that affect the coupling and coordination between grain production efficiency and the tourism development. The findings in this study have certain reference value for the scale of grain production, resource allocation, tourism destination planning and development of provincial-level regions. Moreover, the study provides theoretical support and practical reference for the formulation of macro policies in the aspects such as cultivated land protection, food security, and promotion of high-quality tourism development.