Multi-Agent System 模型在土地利用/覆盖变化中的研究进展

在微观与中宏观尺度上,MAS模型可以反映景观中具有自动性、异质性和分散性的人类决策,利于阐明智能体对自然与社会经济环境的适应机制。因而在自然资源管理、农业经济和城市模拟等领域得到广泛应用。目前,该模型的研究主要集中在智能体决策、智能体相互作用、模型多尺度、模型检验与验证等几个方面。综合分析得出如下结论:①智能体决策框架还需进一步完善,特别有限理性决策框架(Bounded Rationality)还需进一步完善;②智能体之间相互作用的研究仍停留在定性的、概念性的水平,还需进一步研究定量分析智能体相互作用的方法;③在多尺度研究中,第一种尺度转化途径机理明确,但决策的空间显性(spatially-explicit)表达较为困难;第二种途径可以表达空间显性,但决策与土地利用变化之间的逻辑解释不强;第三种途径可以表达土地利用过程中决策与复杂性关系,但智能体之间的相互作用处理较为简单;④还需加强对模型的检验与验证方面的研究,探索验证人类复杂行为的技术方法。

A Review on Multi-Agent System for the Simulation of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change

In fine-scale and area scale, MAS/LUCC models are particularly well suited for representing complex spatial interactions under heterogeneous conditions and for modeling decentralized, autonomous decision making. Current researchers choose to use MAS/LUCC models in three topic areas: natural resource management, agricultural economics and urban simulations. At the present time, researchers focus on three aspects: the agent decision-making, the agent interaction and the model multi-scale analysis. Through reviewing on multi-agent system of simulation, four conclusions can be drawn: first, the frame of agent decision-making should be improved, especially the frame of bounded rationality decision-making. Second, the research on the agent interaction still use qualitative and conceptual method, it is necessary to explore the quantitative method to analyze interaction among agents. Third, there are three methods in multi-scale topic research. Through the transform mechanism of different scales being clear in the first method, it is difficult to explicit spatially the decision-making. The second method may explicit spatially the decision-making, but the explanation power between LUCC and decision-making is not strong. The third method may reveal the relationship between the complexities and the decision-making, which is simple to deal with the agent interaction. Finally, it is necessary to seek the methods of verification and validation upon MAS model.