内蒙古气温变暖停滞对其影响因子变化的响应

采用中心聚类、M-K检验等方法，以内蒙古地区为例，利用全球Pacific Decadal Oscillation（PDO）、Multivariate ENSO Index（MEI）等大空间尺度数据以及内蒙古及其周边70个气象站1951~2016年平均最低气温、平均气温、平均最高气温、风速、大气压等站点数据，定性、定量揭示变暖停滞的变化特征及其对影响因子变化的响应.结果表明：研究区各分区3类气温在1981~1993年间发生升温突变，此后1998~2008年间陆续发生变暖停滞.不同类型气温在不同分区与各影响因子的相关性优劣有所不同，如平均最低气温与AMO、PDO、MEI、太阳总辐射、风速、大气压的相关性最好，平均气温次之，平均最高气温最差；西部区气温与AMO、PDO、MEI、太阳总辐射相关性较好，中部区气温则与AMO、风速相关性较好等.整体上，1990s~2000s，随各分区AMO上升驱缓、PDO处于正位相阶段但呈下降趋势或处于负位相时、MEI值与太阳总辐射下降、风速、大气压、相对湿度的持续下降/上升及之后的趋势转变，各分区气温发生变暖停滞，如当AMO开始整体进入上升趋缓阶段，风速持续减小8~13a，倾向率达到-0.26~-0.11m/（s·10a）时，平均气温发生变暖停滞.平均最低气温对3类影响因子变化的响应最敏感，平均气温次之.气温变暖停滞是多种影响因子共同作用的结果.本研究丰富了该方面研究成果，对气候变化研究及防灾减灾等有一定借鉴意义.

Response of the warming hiatus to changing influences over the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

Focusing on the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, we conducted a comprehensive, qualitative and quantitative analysis on characteristics of the hiatus in temperature increase across the study area, as well as the responses of the hiatus to changes in influencing factors. Several statistical methods, such as the central cluster method and the M-K detection method, were applied in our investigation to the global large-scale spatial data sets (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI)), and regional meteorological records (including average minimum temperature, average temperature, average maximum temperature, wind speed and atmospheric pressure) from 1951 to 2016 from 70 different weather stations. The results indicated that, for all sub-regions of the study area, abrupt changes in three temperature measurements occurred from 1981 to 1993, followed by a warming hiatus from 1998 to 2008. The degrees of correlation between the temperature and its influencing factors were different for different temperature measures, which also varied by sub-region. For example, the average minimum temperature had the strongest correlation with AMO, PDO, MEI, and total solar radiation. The correlation weakened the average temperature, and was the weakest for the average highest temperature. The temperature in the western sub-region was closely related to AMO, PDO, MEI and total solar radiation, whereas the temperature in the middle sub-region was closely related to AMO and wind speed. As a whole, from the 1990s to the 2000s, a time period that was characterized by a weak increasing trend in AMO and a decreasing trend in positive PDO or negative PDO phases, both MEI and total solar radiation showed descending tendencies. At this time, after a long-term increasing/decreasing trend in wind speed, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity, there was a hiatus in the increase in sub-regional temperature. For example, when the increasing trend in AMO slowed, wind speed declined continuously for 8~13a until its slope reached -0.26 to -0.11m/(s·10a), and the increase in average temperature showed a hiatus. Among the three temperatures, the average minimum temperature was most sensitive to changes in the three influencing factors, and the average temperature had a weaker sensitivity. The warming hiatus was a compound result of various factors. This study supplemented the research regarding the mechanisms behind the warming hiatus and provided referencing values for climate change and disaster prevention.