中国工业碳排放的因素分解与脱钩效应

采用广义迪氏指数分解法（GDIM）分析2000~2016年中国工业碳排放的驱动因素，并在此基础上，创新性地结合DPSIR框架构建脱钩努力模型测度工业碳排放的脱钩效应.研究结果表明：产出规模效应、技术进步效应、能源消费规模效应和人均碳排放效应是导致工业碳排放增加的主要因素，而产出碳强度效应与技术进步碳强度效应是减少工业碳排放的关键因素；工业碳排放的脱钩效应呈"未脱钩~弱脱钩~强脱钩"的阶段性特点；产出碳强度效应与技术进步碳强度效应是工业碳排放实现强脱钩的决定性因素，同时更需要调整能源结构、降低能源强度与碳排放强度来实现工业碳排放强脱钩.

Factor decomposition and decoupling effect of China's industrial carbon emissions

In this paper, a generalized divisia index decomposition method (GDIM) was used to analyze the driving factors of China's industrial carbon emissions from 2000 to 2016. On this basis, a decoupling effort model was innovatively constructed combing with the DPSIR framework to measure the decoupling effect of industrial carbon emissions. The empirical results showed that output scale effect, technological progress effect, energy consumption scale effect and per capita carbon emissions effect were the main factors leading to increased industrial carbon emissions, while output carbon intensity effect and technological progress carbon intensity effect were the key factors which reduce industrial carbon emissions. The decoupling effect of industrial carbon emissions was characterized by "negative decoupling~weak decoupling~strong decoupling". The output carbon intensity effect and technological progress carbon intensity effect were the decisive factors to achieve strong decoupling of industrial carbon emissions. At the same time, it was necessary to adjust energy structure, reduce energy intensity and carbon intensity to realize the strong decoupling of industrial carbon emissions.