中国的降水量符合正态分布吗?

利用适合性检验方法 ,对中国境内 16 0个测站自 195 1～ 2 0 0 0年 5 0年的逐月降水资料是否符合正态分布进行了检验 ,并在此基础上对该 16 0个测站降水量的统计分布做了区划。研究结果表明 ,对夏季 ,通过显著性检验的测站数最少 ,而对冬季 ,通过显著性检验的测站数最多 ,即中国夏季降水多符合正态分布 ,而冬季降水多符合非正态分布。一方面 ,我国降水量的统计分布具有一定的区域性、其中黄河流域以南和江淮流域 ,东北地区的东部和西北部以及云南的部分地区为基本符合正态分布区 ,其原因是该区域的气候基本属于季风性气候 ;西北、华北和东北西部为严重偏离正态分布区 ,其原因是西北地区的气候基本是大陆性气候 ;其他地区为偏离正态分布区。另一方面 ,我国降水量的统计分布又具有较强的局地性 ,因此 ,在做有关降水量的分析预报时 ,有必要考虑其统计分布特征。

Does the rainfall in China fit the normal distribution?

Whether the data on monthly rainfalls from the 160 observatories in China fit the normal distribution was checked with fitting test method and the monthly rainfall data from 1951 to 2000. Then zonation of the statistical distribution of the 160 observatories was carried out. The research results show that the observatory number of passing the statistical significance test is the least in summer, but the most in winter. These indicate that the rainfall in China in summer fits the normal distribution better than that in winter. The statistical distribution of rainfall in China has regional characteristic. The southern region of the Huanghe River and the Yangtze and Huaihe River valley, the east and the north west parts of the Northeast China and partial region of Yunnan Province nearly belong to the normal distribution region because the corresponding regional climate belongs to the monsoon climate. The Northwest China, North China and the western part of the Northeast China belong to the non normal distribution region because their climate belongs to mainland climate. Other region climates belong to that of bias normal distribution region. Meanwhile, the statistical distribution of the rainfall in China has stronger local characteristic. So, it is necessary to consider the statistical characteristics of the rainfalls when they are to be forecasted.