AERMOD模型地表参数更新对模拟效果影响

基于2018年高分辨率土地利用数据,对2012版AERSURFACE集成系统进行了更新,以沧州市合围区为例,研究了地表参数更新对AERMOD模型模拟效果的影响,并利用沧州市大气环境监测系统(国控站、省控站、微站)进行了验证.结果表明,AERSURFACE集成系统土地利用数据更新可为AERMOD模型提供更准确的地表参数,使得模拟结果与实测值的相关系数提升,对国控站日均值和小时值年相关系数最大提升值分别为0.073和0.024;从统计学角度分析,该提升显著,使模型模拟结果与实测值的变化趋势更加一致,说明地表参数更新对模型模拟具有正向作用.从时间尺度上看,土地利用数据更新对冬、春季的模拟效果提升比夏季更大;对日均值的模拟效果提升比小时值更大.

Research on the influence of AERMOD model surface parameter update on simulation effect

Based on the high-resolution land use data in 2018, this paper updated the AERSURFACE integrated system (version 2012). Taking the enclosed area of Cangzhou Expressway as an example, the influence of surface parameter update on the simulation effect of AERMOD model was studied. The atmospheric environment monitoring system (including national control station, provincial control station and micro-station) in Cangzhou was used for verification. The update of land use data of the AERSURFACE integrated system could provide more accurate surface parameters for the AERMOD model simulation, which improves the correlation coefficient between the simulation results and the measured value. The maximum improvement in the daily average and hourly correlation coefficients of the national control station was 0.073 and 0.024, respectively. From a statistical point of view, this significant improvement made the results of the model simulation more consistent with the change trend of the measured values, indicating that the update of surface parameters had a positive effect on the model simulation. From the perspective of time scale, the improvement of the simulation effect of the land use data in winter and spring was greater than that in summer; and the simulation effect of the daily average value was improved more than the hourly value.