城市群碳排放空间关联网络结构及其影响因素

基于社会网络分析(SNA)及二次分配(QAP)方法,利用珠江三角洲城市群2001~2019年地级市数据,探究珠江三角洲城市群碳排放空间关联性及其影响因素.结果表明,珠江三角洲城市群碳排放空间相关性呈现出复杂的网络结构形态,空间关联的紧密程度呈现周期性变化,表现出“依政策波动”特征.碳排放空间关联网络呈现显著的“核心-边缘”分布模式,广州和深圳等经济发达城市处于网络核心,发挥“中介”和“桥梁”作用,惠州,江门等发展较为落后的城市处于网络边缘,对网络的控制和影响能力较为微弱.碳排放空间关联网络划分为“净受益”,“净溢出”,“双向溢出”和“经纪人”4个板块,各板块之间的联动效应显著.经济发展水平,能源利用效率,技术水平和环保力度差异的扩大促进了碳排放空间关联关系的形成.研究结果将有助于决策者为珠江三角洲城市群各城市界定减排责任和减排目标,制定更公平,更有针对性的城市群协同减排方案提供借鉴.

Spatial correlation network structure and influencing factors of carbon emission in urban agglomeration

Based on the method of social network analysis (SNA) and quadratic assignment procedure (QAP), the paper conducted a research with regard to the spatial correlation and influencing factors of carbon emissions in urban agglomerations of Pearl River Delta with the data of prefecture-level cities in Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations during 2001 and 2019. As the result suggested, the spatial correlation of carbon emissions in PRD urban agglomerations presented a complex network structure, and the closeness of spatial correlation changed periodically, showing the feature of "fluctuating according to policy". The spatial correlation network of carbon emissions showed a significant core-edge distribution pattern. The economically developed cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen were at the core of the network, playing the role of "intermediary" and "bridge", while the underdeveloped cities such as Huizhou and Jiangmen were at the edge of the network and had weak ability to control and influence the network. The spatial correlation network of carbon emissions could be divided into four sectors: net benefit, net spillover, two-way spillover and broker. The expansion of differences in economic development level, energy use efficiency, technological level and environmental protection intensity promoted the formation of spatial correlation relationship of carbon emissions. The analysis above would be helpful for decision-makers to define emission reduction responsibilities and emission reduction targets for cities in the PEARL River Delta urban agglomeration, and provided references for formulating fairer and more targeted coordinated emission reduction plans for urban agglomeration.