中原城市群区域碳储量的时空变化和预测研究

为了有效评估中原城市群碳储量,运用灰色预测模型获取动态碳密度数据,结合Dyna-CLUE模型和InVEST模型,动态评估2005~2030年土地利用变化下不同情景的碳储量演变特征,以及城市发展对碳储量的影响.结果表明,2005~2020年中原城市群碳储量分别为1689.59×10⁶t、2035.36×10⁶t、2066.34×10⁶t和2093.05×10⁶t,呈现持续增加趋势;2030年经济发展情景、生态保护情景和经济生态协调发展情景下碳储量分别为2162.45×10⁶t、2179.39×10⁶t和2174.28×10⁶t,经济发展情景下碳储量最低,生态保护情景下碳储量最高.碳储量变化与土地利用面积变化密切相关,主要表现为耕地面积的下降导致其碳储量减少约250×10⁶t,林地面积的扩张导致其碳储量增加约103.4×10⁶t,建设用地的扩张导致其碳储量增加约87.77×10⁶t;耕地和草地面积与总碳储量呈较弱的负相关关系,林地、水域、建设用地和未利用地面积与总碳储量呈较强的正相关关系.2005~2030年中原城市群30个城市的碳储量分别为11.38×10⁶t~214.24×10⁶t,碳储量的变化反映出城市土地碳排放在2030年之前已经达到峰值,且经济生态协调发展情景可能更适合未来城市发展的目标.

Temporal and spatial variation and prediction of regional carbon storage in Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration

In order to effectively evaluate the carbon reserve of Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration, dynamic carbon density data was obtained by using the grey prediction model, combined with the Dyna-CLUE model and the InVEST model, which were used to dynamically evaluate the carbon reserve evolution characteristics under different scenarios of land use change, as well as the impact of urban development on carbon reserve from 2005 to 2030. The results showed that the carbon reserve of the Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration from 2005 to 2020 were 1689.59×10⁶t, 2035.36×10⁶t, 2066.34×10⁶t and 2093.05×10⁶t, showing a continuously increasing trend; In 2030, the carbon reserve under the economic development scenario, ecological protection scenario and coordinated economic and ecological development scenario were 2162.45×10⁶t, 2179.39×10⁶t and 2174.28×10⁶t, respectively. The carbon reserve was at the minimum under the economic development scenario and at the maximum under the ecological protection scenario. The change of carbon reserve was closely related to that of land use area, which is mainly manifested as follows. The decrease of the cultivated land area resulted in an increase of about 250×10⁶t of carbon reserve, the expansion of forest land resulted in an increase of about 103.4×10⁶t of carbon reserve, and the expansion of construction land resulted in an increase of about 87.77×10⁶t of carbon reserve. The area of cultivated land and grassland had a weak negative correlation with the total carbon reserve, and the area of forest land, water area, construction land and unused land had a strong positive correlation with the total carbon reserve. From 2005 to 2030, the carbon reserve of the 30cities in the Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration ranged from 11.38×10⁶t to 214.24×10⁶t, respectively. The changes in carbon reserve reflected that urban land carbon emissions has peaked by 2030, and the coordinated economic and ecological development scenario might be more suitable for future cities.